THE MULTIVARIATE OF EVOLUTION AND MANAGEMENT OF THE ECONOMIC PROCESSES (The paradigm of revelation the alternatives of the development on the basis 1920s years)

Abstract

Recently, several alternatives models of the management of social-economic development are studied more and more actively. In these conditions historical regularity as orientated development in one direction is understood by most of the scholars just in the capacity of the general tendency. In reality, it is added by different factors, which substantially modify the historical processes. These modifications can be both "progressive" and "regressive". But to answer the question - which factors and how do these factors determine the orientation of development to one or another direction? - until recently nobody didn't presume. In fact, this is one of the problem which the social (and others) sciences will have to decide probably during a long period.
The article is directed to arise a interest to the original way of a decision of this question and presents a fully innovative technology which enables to reveal the situations of the alternatives. This is a serious breakthrough in our scientific literature. Really, many scholars somehow or other were writing about a potentialities of the alternatives development of political events, economic reforms, social processes in the last years. But the verifiable technologies which could reveal these alternatives were not existed.
The object - on which the technology reveal the situations of the alternatives is tested - is evolution of political-legal regulation of the small agricultural and crafts production played the considerable role in the economic system of Russia in 1920s years. The novelty of the article consists of the working out the methodology of analysis which can use for study of more wide and complicated systems. The main idea of this methodology concludes of the revelation and analysis of objective conditions forming the alternatives situations by means of a theory of fuzzy sets combining to the procedures factors analysis of long-time series.
As a result of research author revealed 42 situations of the alternatives (among which 38 were short-time and 4 - more prolonged) in the evolution of legal regulation of crafts' sphere. This means that possibilities of deliberate correction of the centralized management mechanisms were opening before the ruling circles in these situations. But especially important that models of stability's degree of the alternatives routes and models of character of these routes of powering macroregulation crafts' sphere in 1920s years were constructed.
The main significance of presented technology is that it (in conjunction with simulations models) enables to pass from hypothetical conclusions about optimality of historical choice of social persons in some moment to the verifiable analysis procedures. As a result of the research more reliable information about the object being explored was achieved. The original author's technology can be use to the analysis of the modern situation in Russia: there is a transitional period of the political and economic development which characterized as unstable; moreover the appraisals of the situations (based, unfortunately, just on sense perception) were differed among the Russian and foreign scholars.