Social and economic development of Russia in 1995 (on materials of analytical review of the Institute for the Economy in Transition)

Abstract

The basic macro- and microeconomics social and political tendencies, institutional problems of Russia's development are analyzed in the review.The analysis of the social and political background of economic reforms characterizes the impact of political processes on the direction and dynamics of the reforms. The section covers economic and political specifics of 1995, including the results of the elections in the State Douma and perspectives of the economic policy, to which various political forces of the society orient. The reasons and consequences of the victory and defeat of certain parties and that political and ideological framework which they imprint on the post-stabilization political course are considered in more details. The provided prognosis of economic and political development of Russia in 1996 is based on alternative models of economic systems, the probability of development of which depends upon results of the presidential elections and further actions on the accomplishment of the stabilization phase. The section dedicated to monetary, credit and budgetary policy includes a wide scope of issues concerning the state of monetary sector, state finance and problems of the development of various segments of the financial market. In particular, the matters of the budgetary policy are considered within the framework of the new concept of macroeconomic policy elaborated in late 1994. Also, such matters as the situation with executing the state budget for 1995, including its regional specifics, problems of taxation policy and the impact of the taxation legislation on performing the state budget in terms of revenues are considered in the section. The analysis is provided for both the project of the budget for 1996 and perspectives of the state finance in conjunction with current changes in the taxation legislation and depending on the monetary and credit policy's advancement, variants of the development of which are represented in a form of scenario prognosis. The section also covers main features of the process of financial stabilization: measures of antiinflational and currency policies, along with the policy of administering the internal debt. The section concerning investment processes in the real sector of economy covers characteristics of investment policy and investment potential in Russian economy. The section describes factors which have determined the investment processes, trends and dynamics of both domestic and foreign investment inflow in the national economy, as well as problems of investment activities. The main features of the Federal investment policy for 1996 are represented in this section: orientation towards forming favorable environment, encouraging the enhancement of investment activity of the non-state sector, attraction of private domestic and foreign investment for the purpose of restructurization of the economy. The section dedicated to the real sector of economy contains detailed data concerning general macroeconomic trends in the real sector, dynamics of development of single branches of economy and their problems. Thus, in particular, the analysis of the dynamics and structure of basic macroeconomic indicators is provided: GDP at the stage of production, distribution and final consumption of the yields of industry, agriculture and capital investment. There is a description of the trends of industrial dynamics by branches, of factors having an impact on them, as well as of structural shifts determined by differentiations in the dynamics of production yields by branches. The analysis of the situation in the agrarian sector covers the dynamics and structure of production by the spheres of Agroindustrial Complex and by property forms in the agrarian sector. In the section analyzing social sphere and labor market, the survey has been undertaken into the following issues: the population's life standards, differentiation of the population by levels of revenues, state of the consumption market, including that on the basis of subjective estimations of the population resulted from materials of sociological polls The situation in the social infrastructure branches ( healthcare, education and culture) is evaluated from the viewpoint of their impact on the processes of social regeneration, the analysis of which is also represented in the respective sections concerning demographic processes and situation in the sphere of employment. The microeconomic problems of Russian economy are represented in the comprehensive analysis of the privatization process in 1995, and its perspectives.