Russia In Cross-National Analysis Of Synthetic Categories Of The Quality Of Life Russia's Trajectory At The Turn Of XX-XXI Centuries (1995-2004)

Abstract

In 2001 in journal «Universe of Russia» there was a publication on the materials of the first part of the research, conducted by the well-known Russian economist and mathematician S. Ayvazyan. The article was mainly devoted to the description of methodology of construction and statistical analysis of the indicators of different synthetic (latent) categories of the quality and way of life of the population of countries (regions), which allows to carry out cross-country (cross-regional) comparisons and to construct ratings. In the same article the author presented the results of experimental approbation of the suggested methodology using the data of «The World Competitiveness Yearbook» (1996—2001), devoted to cross-country analysis of synthetic category of the highest level of the community — «quality of life of the population (QLP)» with special emphasis on the clarification of the role and the place of Russia in this cross-country analysis and on the examination of the dynamics, observed during this period. The second part of the research, presented in this issue of the journal is devoted to the analysis of «Russian trajectory» during the period between 1995 and 2004 (according to the data of «The World Competitiveness Yearbook, 1997-2004») in the «phase space» of such resulting synthetic categories as «QLP», «level of living standard», «level of social unity (consensus) in the society», «quality of the population». At the same time the author considered as explanatory variables, defining the values of these resulting criterial indicators, not only (and not so much) statistically registered indicators (as it was done in the first part of the research), but also latent synthetic categories, such as the levels of development (or efficiency) of different institutes (legislative, judicial, financial, bureaucratic), the level of development of the economy of knowledge, the level of corruption and bribery in the society. Such statement of the problem is aimed at the revelation of the main «bottlenecks», and, in particular, those, which serve as explanatory variables of institutional development and social and economic policy conducted in the country, on the perfection of which the improvement of the life quality of the population of Russia depends in the first place. The subsequent cause analysis of these characteristics and their dynamics helps to reveal the main tasks in the perfection of institutional development of the country and in the elaboration of social and economic policy. The establishment and measurement of different synthetic (latent, i.e. not amenable to direct measurement) categories of the quality and way of life of the population of countries and regions are an important scientific problem. During the last 15 years on the basis of IMD-Intemational (International Institute for Management Development), Losanna, Switzerland, and within the framework of the «World Competitiveness Project» there was conducted a most detailed annual monitoring of the main macroindicators of social and economic development of 52 countries of the world and of 8 separate regions of several of these countries. According to the results of this monitoring comparative analysis of countries and regions is carried out, various ratings are constructed and certain tendencies are revealed. The results of this analysis are published every year (See: WCY 1997—2004) and are discussed by specialists at various meetings including the so-called «World economic forum». 323 indicators are considered, among which 113 indicators have synthetic (latent) nature and are estimated by experts according to ten-point scale. In particular, among these indicators there are such synthetic categories of the quality and way of life of the population as «Level of social unity (consensus) in the society», «Level of stable development», «Quality of life of the population», and also there are different synthetic characteristics of the level of development of institutional structures (legislative, judicial, financial, bureaucratic), of the level of influence on the competitiveness of the national economy of the extent of personal safety provision of a member of the society and inviolability of private property, existence of shadow («parallel») economy, corruption and bribery, economy of knowledge. The purpose of this article is to estimate connections between resulting (criterial) synthetic categories of the quality and way of life of the population, on the one hand, and synthetic characteristics of institutional structures, corruption, personal (physical) safety of a member of the society and inviolability of private property, shadow («parallel») economy and the economy of knowledge, on the other hand, and also to analyze the main tendencies of «Russian trajectory» of the development during the period between 1995 and 2004 in the «phase space» of the considered synthetic categories. In order to achieve this purpose we solved the following tasks: 1) We determine the list of resulting (criterial) synthetic categories of the quality and way of life of the population, i.e. those categories (for the most part latent), which can be used as criteria of the level of social and economic development of the country; 2) For each resulting (criterial) synthetic category we determine its own set of explanatory variables, which characterize the level of institutional development of the country and also social and economic policy conducted in the country (including tax policy, monetary policy and so on); 3) We determine (estimate) the regression dependence between the indicator of each resulting synthetic category and the corresponding set of explanatory variables; 4) On the basis of the data of 1995—2004 we carry out the analysis of the trajectories of criterial and key explanatory variables with the purpose of revelation and explanation of the main tendencies and determination of the main «bottlenecks», i.e. those factors on the improvement of values of which further progress in the values of corresponding resulting synthetic category depends in the first place. The obtained results allow to explain why even against the background of positive (fragmentary) dynamics of Russian economy (quite respectable indicators of the general economic growth, acceptable situation as concerns export and gold and foreign currency reserves), key resulting indicators of the quality and way of life of the population of Russia remain at a very low level and do not have any positive dynamics. The same results reveal (not on the fiction level but on the quantitative one) those key directions in the perfection of Russian institutes and social and economic policy, which are essential for successful improvement of the life quality of the population. They are: - measures aimed at raising the level of provision of personal safety of a member of the society and inviolability of private property; - development of the economy of knowledge as top priority, and in particular, essential increase of the expenses on research engineering and experimental investigations; - implementation of institutional transformations and reforms in the field of social and economic policy, aimed at essential improvement of the situation with environmental pollution, reduction of the level of bribery and corruption, and also increase of social responsibility of business-leaders and reduction of the level of income differentiation of the population.