A Demographic Problem: Who Is Guilty And What To Do?

Abstract

In this article we consider demographic situation as a social problem; motives, results and limitations of measures of demographic policy and motives of their implementation are discussed; we also present here the opinions of different social groups about the policy in the field of the population. Demographic processes are a subject of great debates and political measures in the majority of the countries of the world. Theses debates do not prevent the European governments from carrying out coordinated policy, based on scrupulous consideration of various factors and long-term forecasts, while in Russia it hampers the realization of inevitability of demographic transformations and the elaboration of adequate social policy. The increase of life expectancy, the growth of the population due to the inflow of migrants are contemporary realities of all the countries of Europe, including Russia. That is why it is necessary to better understand the character of demographic processes, as well as their significance for the prospects of the development of the country. Meanwhile the opinions of different experts, including scholars, officials, politicians, public figures, journalists are sometimes very retrograde and ill-informed. There is no «fault of women» in the reduction of fertility as it is presented by some traditionalists. This is a question of choice of modern people — husbands and wives, partners, living together autonomously. The pressure of changing age structure on the finance basis of the schemes of social protection is perceived in many countries of the world as a problem, embedded in the reduction of fertility, and as a result the governments begin to see a way out in the change of demographic trends instead of reconsidering the schemes of social security. It is necessary to consider both the increase of life expectancy and migration not only as a disaster, but rather as the realities of many modern industrial countries and a resource of economic and social development. The countries with the level of fertility, which does not exceed simple reproduction, will need to modify a number of social institutes in order to satisfy the requirements of absolutely new age structure. It is possible that there will be less need for educational institutions, but the biggest trial will fall to the pension system, system of social protection of elderly, public health or insurance medicine. Today it is quite obvious that demographic policy cannot be separated from the social policy as a whole. It should be attached to the same goals and because of this it is often a compromise, which could lower its efficiency from the demographic point of view. Thus, the reduction of volumes, means and efficiency of the social policy will rather entail the reduction of the level of fertility. The article deals with the results of interviews with mothers having many children and the employees of social organizations. The general estimation of the state support of these possessing many children by the residents of the provinces is low, in spite of the fact that all of them in this or that form resort to the public relief, the quality of life of the majority of mothers does not change, and this makes them doubt the ability and the desire of the state to support families. Even taking into account the arguments of liberals about low fertility in regions with high level of life, the employees of the social sphere insist on the importance of economic and social stability, safety, rise of incomes, expansion of the possibilities of employment, accessibility of high-quality public health services, education and social protection — as the conditions for the formation of people's trust towards the state and confidence in future. These may be called necessary conditions for the formation of such culture among the population, which would favour giving birth to two and more children. As for sufficient conditions, we certainly need a proper ideology, which regards as of paramount importance human dignity, possibility to make a choice and really respectful attitude to reproductive labour, supported by real political measures.