Russia’s Future: In the Grip of History, Chaos and Scenarios

Abstract

Alexander Ageev — Director, Institute of Economic Strategies, Russian Academy of Sciences. Address: Bldg. 1, 6, Sretenskii Boulevard, Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. Contact: http://www.ageev.net

“The future will be much worse than we would want it to be, although much better than it could be” are the words of one contemporary Russian writer. There is much wisdom in this formula. There is also some irony about our expectations, some understanding of the mystery of risks, and, what is most important, trust in the future. Although for developing strategies on state, corporate and personal levels, this maxim functions as a starting point, but not a methodology of strategic development in the contemporary world. The most important element of this methodology is the understanding of 1) the essence of strategic process; 2) the cyclic nature of the historical evolution of the corresponding social systems and their ‘dependence on the path which was chosen in the past’; and 3) the scope of possible trajectories of Russia’s evolution and the evolution of the external environment.