The Shifts in the Social Structure of Russian Society and Their Consequences: an Attempt at Forecasting

Abstract

Sergey Belanovskiy — Director, Social and Economic Programs, Fund “Centre for Strategic Research”. Address: 1, Bolshaya Yakimanka St., Moscow, 119180, Russian Federation. E-mail: sbelan@sbelan.ru

Mikhail Dmitriev — President, Fund “Centre for Strategic Research”. Address: 1, Bolshaya Yakimanka St., Moscow, 119180, Russian Federation. E-mail: president@csr.ru

Svetlana Misikhina — Director, Centre of Social Policy, Institute for Applied Economic Research of the Russian Academy for National Economy and State Service. Address: 82, Vernadskogo Ave., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation.

Tatiana Omelchuk —Senior Researcher, Institute for Applied Economic Research of the Russian Academy for National Economy and State Service. Address: 82, Vernadskogo Ave., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation.

Contemporary Russian society has undergone a dramatic transformation of values and social structure. During the last decade the fast economic growth has facilitated the formation of a massive urban middle class with specific behavioral patterns, lifestyles, values and political preferences. During the next decade this process may accelerate as a result of the age transition of two generations of baby-boomers — postwar baby-boomers and their children. Many of the children of the first generation of baby-boomers were born during Perestroika in the 1980s. They are the most numerous age group of the Russian population and will outnumber other age groups at least until 2050. Under the combined influence of economic, social and demographic changes, the structure of Russian society is transforming from a mono-polar social structure, typical for the late 1990s and early 2000s, towards a bipolar one. These two social poles are characterized by conflicting values systems (traditionalist and modernistic). Social transformation will trigger the process of political change from monopolized towards a more open and competitive political system.