Russia: Demographic Results of the Two Post-Soviet Decades

Abstract

Anatoly Vishnevsky — Director, Institute for Demography, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”. Address: 20, Myasnitskaya St., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: avishnevsky@hse.ru

The article discusses some major elements of Russia’s demographic situation and their evolution over the past two decades. It also addresses the main challenges which Russia is going to face in the next 10-20 years. Despite some positive changes, there has been no radical turn in the situation. Over the last two decades, the dynamics of the main demographic processes — fertility, mortality and migration — had minor fluctuations that do not indicate the irreversible attainment of the desirable trajectory of development.

The total fertility rate notwithstanding some growth in the recent years (1.57 in 2010), was unable to return to the minimum level of the Soviet period (1.89 in 1980 and 1990). A more correct measure — the cohort completed fertility — indicates that the decline in fertility, at best, slowed down at historic minimum for Russia (about 1.6 births per woman), but no growth has occurred. Starting with the female cohorts who were born after 1910 and reached the age of motherhood in the late 1920s all generations of Russian women did not actually reproduce themselves. In future, with favourable developments, a stabilisation of the cohort completed fertility at 1.5-1.6 children per woman is quite likely.

Russia’s lag behind most developed countries in life expectancy has not yet been reduced. Actually, the gap has been growing ever since the mid-1960s. In Soviet times, the historical maximum level for Russian men was recorded in 1987 (64.8 years), while for women in 1989 (74.5 years). For women, the former maximum was exceeded in 2009-2010, however, for men the level of 1964-1965 has not yet been reached again.

The long-term retention of low fertility does not allow for maintaining a positive, or at least a zero natural population growth. In 1992, the natural increase of population in Russia was swapped for a natural decrease. Prior to 2000, the natural population decrease was growing. It later began to diminish, but this diminishing was only temporary and due to “favorable” changes in age structure. Later the “favorable” changes in the age structure were replaced by “unfavorable”, and now Russia is on the verge of new natural population decrease.

Under these circumstances, international migration is acquiring an absolutely new value. It is becoming a very important demographic resource — a replenishing population source for Russia and the gap in its labor market. However, there are many obstacles to using this specific resource. In particular, a negative attitude toward immigration among Russians is impossible to ignore. Only a well-founded migration policy, which is capable of minimizing the risks that are objectively connected with the influx of a large number of migrants can improve the situation. In any case, the migration issues are inevitably becoming an important issue on the agenda in 21st century Russia.

The demographic challenges faced by Russia are seriously underestimated. Government measures to improve the demographic situation are not sufficient. In particular, due to limited resources allocated to address urgent problems like reducing mortality.