Russia in the Context of Global Economic Trends. Book Review: Palacios-Huerta I. (ed.) (2016) Cherez 100 let: vedushchieekonomisty predskazyvayut budushchee [In 100 Years:Leading Economists Predict the Future], Moscow: Izdftel’stvo Instituta Gaidara.

Abstract

Evgeny Balatsky — Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Centre for Macroeconomic Research, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Address: room 219, 4, 4th Veshnyakovskii passage, Moscow, 109456, Russian Federation. E-mail: evbalatsky@inbox.ru

This article discusses global issues that will concern humankind in the next 100 years as revealed in Palacios-Huerta I. (ed.) (2016) In 100 Years: Leading Economists Predict the Future, Moscow: The Gaidar Institute. In this book, the 10 of most eminent economists discuss the threats and challenges which will be faced by people all over the world in the next 100 years, and possible responses to these challenges. All the economists agree that the main problems include the design of effective inclusive institutions, combating the growing income inequality, the intensification of intellectual labour, resisting moral decay and the prevention of ecological disasters associated with climate change. In addition, the reviewer considers the following question: to what extent do (or will) the future trends discussed in the book affect the Russian economy and what place can Russia occupy in the new configuration of the world? The current state of the Russian economy makes it doubtful that efficient inclusive institutions will emerge in the next few decades: it is far more likely that Russia will continue to go against the global trends, and respond to new challenges by relying on its extractive institutions established in the last 15–17 years. It is equally unlikely that it will be able to combat the country’s growing wealth inequality, since it continues to rely firmly on a flat income tax, which is almost unique in the Western world. There is every indication that the requirements for fulfilling intellectual work in Russia will be even higher than in many other countries. The degradation of moral values in Russian society is expected to continue at the same rate as other developed countries of the world, creating many political risks and threats. However, more positively, there is a real opportunity that Russia will stand at the forefront of the movement to prevent ecological disasters due to climate change, given sufficient political will in overcoming this problem paradoxically coupled with the existing extractive industries.