Authoritarian Modernization in Russia – Mission: Impossible?

Abstract

Vladimir Gel’man – Candidate of Science in Politics, Professor, European University at St. Petersburg, University of Helsinki. Address: 3A, Gagarinskaya St., St. Petersburg, 191187, Russian Federation. E-mail: vgelman@eu.spb.ru

This article analyses post-Soviet reforms in Russia, and treats them as an example of ‘authoritarian modernization’, which were implemented to achieve a high level of socio-economic development by focusing on rapid economic growth while neglecting political democratization. It discusses the arguments in favour of authoritarian modernization as such, and the dilemmas, challenges, and constraints in its implementation which became evident during the period of 1990-2010s. A special emphasis is made on the poor quality of the Russian state against the background of its relatively low international integration. The rent-seeking nature of the state together with the formation and further entrenchment of an electorally authoritarian regime provide negative incentives for the implementation of authoritarian modernization. The article considers a number of contradictions associated with such a project in Russia, including some unintended consequences of the economic growth, including the growth of the demands for democratization, the disjuncture between ambitious policy reforms and their inept implementation by the state apparatus, and the ‘mediocrity syndrome’ resulting from unjustified claims of Russia’s unique influence on the global scale. The article concludes that the features of Russia’s current political and economic order impose insurmountably high barriers for the implementation of authoritarian modernization in terms of ideas, institutions, and policies, thereby exhausting the very potential of this project.