Evaluating the Impact of the Population Policy on Fertility Rates in Russia

Abstract

This article examines the current Russian demographic policy from the perspective of its real intentions rather than its declared ones. A historical analysis of the demographic issue in Russia reveals the ineffectiveness of social support measures in increasing the birth rate. The article suggests that the regulator utilizes a “pronatalist family policy” as a means to redistribute resources to the construction sector through banks as financial operators. Due to institutional instability, the article assumes that no other measures of the “demographic package” besides for home purchases are implemented. These measures are more likely to be social assistance to poor families rather than measures directly aimed at increasing the birth rate. In practice, the population policy is becoming neo-liberal, as the demand for housing is stimulated by maternity capital and the financing of concessional lending programs, resulting in a growing debt burden on the population. Despite these measures, Russian families have not change their family planning, and the overall birth rate in Russia does not exceed then that predicted by demographers.