The Dynamics of Motherhood Entry in Modern Russia

Abstract

This article investigates the dynamics of motherhood entry in the context of the global transformation of demographic behavior. The study is situated within the broader context of societal value change, declining fertility, and rising rates of childlessness, which challenge national demographic policies. I open with a description of the modern theoretical and methodological framework of fertility research. I then discuss the current demographic trends based on calendar and cohort approaches to fertility calculation. The synthesis of these approaches allows for the identification of long-term factors of reproductive behavior, such as large-scale changes in lifestyle from generation to generation, and short-term shocks. I show that first births are now declining at the ages of their maximum intensity (20-29). Delayed fertility among women over 30 intensified until 2016 and has slowed down since. Further analysis shows that for cohorts born 1970-79 childbearing was more frequently postponed, and less intensive catch-up fertility led to relatively low total fertility rates. In cohorts born 1980-89, the rate of postponement was moderate, and the efficiency of catching up was relatively high. High rates of postponement are expected in cohorts born in 1990 or later. This makes future declines in the total fertility rate all the more likely. I predict the growth of childlessness in generations of Russian women born in 1980-1990. I also point out the further diversification of reproductive behaviors, in particular, the rising heterogeneity at the age of first birth, which is a peculiar trend when compared to other countries. The analysis is based on data from “The Human Fertility Database” project. The analysis covering 2014 and beyond is based on annual tables on the Natural Population Movement by Rosstat.